How will "petroshekels" change the world?

The standing joke among Jews is, "If we're the Chosen People, why didn't God promise us some land with OIL under it?" As it turns out, He did.

Recent discoveries -- over the past several years -- put the amount of natural gas reserves in Israeli territorial waters at as much as 26 trillion cubic feet. That's roughly triple what Israel will consume over the next 20 years, meaning much of it can be exported. But compared to Egypt's 77 tcf of gas reserves, Israel's natural gas discoveries are not quite Earth-shaking.

Currently, Israel imports coal for domestic electricity, supplemented since 2004 by natural gas from the offshore Mari-B field twenty-five miles from the southern port of Ashdod. More gas comes from Egypt, arriving near Ashdod via an undersea pipeline. Indeed, despite the excitement over the Leviathan field, Israel signed a new twenty-year gas purchase agreement with Egypt earlier in December to supply several industrial entities, including the Dead Sea Works and the Haifa refinery.

If the riches of the Leviathan field are confirmed, production could begin by 2016. In that scenario, Israel could eventually become a net energy exporter despite still needing to import oil to refine into gasoline and other products. Apart from notional energy independence, using natural gas from its own fields would save Israel $4 billion in imports annually while boosting gross national product. Plentiful indigenous hydrocarbon supplies could also prompt the development of new industries. For the time being, though, Israel must resolve a variety of problems before it can begin reaping the full benefits of the new discovery.

However, Israel sits atop another energy resource: oil shale. Up until the end of 2010, it was believed that Israel had about 4 billion barrels of oil in extractable oil shale. Given that the Saudis produce just under 10 million bbl/day, those 4 billion bbl are equivalent to about 400 days of Saudi Arabia's production.

But new discoveries of oil shale in Israel and new techniques of extraction put the latest estimates of available oil from Israeli shale at 250 billion bbl - just shy of Saudi Arabia's proven reserves of 260 billion bbl.

What is less well-known, but even more dramatic, is the work being done on this country’s oil shale. The British-based World Energy Council reported in November 2010 that Israel had oil shale from which it is possible to extract the equivalent of 4 billion barrels of oil. Yet these numbers are currently undergoing a major revision internationally.

A new assessment was released late last year by Dr. Yuval Bartov, chief geologist for Israel Energy Initiatives, at the yearly symposium of the prestigious Colorado School of Mines. He presented data that our oil shale reserves are actually the equivalent of 250 billion barrels (that compares with 260 billion barrels in the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia).

Independent oil industry analysts have been carefully looking at the shale, and have not refuted these findings. As a consequence of these new estimates, we may emerge as the third largest deposit of oil shale, after the US and China.

Moreover, Israel is developing extraction techniques that take the oil out of the shale while the shale remains underground, at per-barrel costs of $20 or less.

What would it mean to the world if Israel were able to produce oil at rates similar to Saudi Arabia?

1) Lower oil prices overall. More supply would allow oil prices to fall to levels more consistent with historical patterns. Cheaper oil would help the world's industrialized economies to grow.

2) A loosening of OPEC's stranglehold on world oil markets. Any significant non-OPEC production reduces OPEC's leverage and provides a safety valve against production restrictions by one or more OPEC nations.

3) A flip in American foreign aid payments. Israel would no longer need aid from the USA and would be able to buy American military hardware for cash.

4) A revision in geopolitical and global military postures. Unlike oil from the Persian Gulf that has to transit the Suez Canal or circumnavigate Africa, Israeli oil can be delivered to tankers in the Mediterranean. Consider the way Europe reacted to the potential disruption of oil production in Libya, an unstable and hostile producer in the Mediterranean; the value of a politically stable and friendly oil source in the Mediterranean would cause the West to put more pressure on the Arab world to declare peace with Israel and cease threatening a valuable energy exporter. It would also change the calculus with respect to the threat Iran and its nuclear program pose to Israel.

5) A potential recession in global terrorism. If the West uses Israel's rise as an oil exporter as an impetus to stand up to Iran, the Iranian regime may find it too costly to continue exporting terrorism via Syria to Hezbollah, Hamas and other groups around the world. Without Iranian sponsorship, jihadist movements in many places would become too weak to stand up to more moderate movements. And to the extent that Israel's competition with Saudi Arabia in the oil markets and its new geopolitical importance made life harder on Saudi and other Gulf oil sheikhs and emirs, they would have less disposable income to spend on al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Not surprisingly, Hezbollah wants to throw a monkey wrench into Israel's plans by prodding Lebanon to claim part of Israel's territorial waters for its own. But Israel has plenty of gas for its own use in undisputed waters and has the technology to defend its claims against Hezbollah attacks by missiles or suicide boats. And Hezbollah can't make any claim over Israeli oil shale.

Let's hope this brave new world opens up soon. We will all benefit.

When is an act of war an act of war?

So the US military catches a member of the Iranian military -- the "elite" Revolutionary Guards Quds Force -- in Iraq, in the process of smuggling sophisticated explosively-formed projectiles into the country to murder Americans and Iraqis.

An Iranian officer accused of smuggling powerful roadside bombs into Iraq for the elite Quds force was arrested Thursday, the military said.

The suspect - a member of the Quds Force, an elite unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guards - was detained in the Kurdish city of Sulaimaniyah, the military said.

He was allegedly involved in transporting roadside bombs, including armor-piercing explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, into Iraq, according to a statement. It said intelligence reports also indicated he was involved in the infiltration and training of foreign fighters in Iraq.

At what point do we call this activity what it is -- an act of war?

Same question for the Lebanese, who saw another anti-Syrian lawmaker assassinated by car bomb.

Beirut - The Assassination of Phalange Party MP Antoine Ghanem on Wednesday was widely condemned by the various factions and blamed by the March 14 majority alliance on Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime.

MP Saad Hariri, leader of the parliament majority , blamed the killing on the "cowardly" Assad regime which "retaliated by killing Lebanese after Israeli jet fighters raided Syria."

"I haven't in my life known a more cowardly regime than that of Bashar Assad," a sad-looking Hariri told reporters.

He said the "enemies of Lebanon killed Antoine Ghanem (picture) today because they want to prevent the presidential elections … they want to kill Lebanon."



"We will not permit the criminals to kill Lebanon.. The presidential elections will be held … the presidency belongs to the Lebanese people," Hariri vowed.

He said the international tribunal that would try suspects in the 2005 slaying of his father former PM Rafik Hariri and related crimes, "would also try the cowardly killers and those who are blocking the presidential elections."

Democratic Gathering leader Walid Jumblatt also charged the Assad regime of architecting the Ghanem killing by a booby-trapped car explosion to "strike at the parliamentary majority and the Lebanese People which is struggling for its independence, sovereignty and freedom."

The situation in Iraq and Lebanon would be much calmer if the situation in Iran and Syria were much hotter.

You play with nerve gas, you're going to get sprayed

Couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of fellas: 'Dozens died in Syrian-Iranian chemical weapons experiment'

Proof of cooperation between Iran and Syria in the proliferation and development of weapons of mass destruction was brought to light Monday in a Jane's Magazine report that dozens of Iranian engineers and 15 Syrian officers were killed in a July 23 accident in Syria.

According to the report, cited by Channel 10, the joint Syrian-Iranian team was attempting to mount a chemical warhead on a scud missile when the explosion occurred, spreading lethal chemical agents, including sarin nerve gas and VX gas.

The factory was created specifically for the purposes of altering ballistic missiles to carry chemical payloads, the magazine report claimed.

Reports of the accident were circulated at the time, however, no details were released by the Syrian government, and there were no hints of an Iranian connection.

The report comes on the heels of criticism leveled by the Syrains at the United States, accusing it of spreading "false" claims of Syrian nuclear activity and cooperation with North Korea to excuse an alleged Israeli air incursion over the country this month.

According to Global Security.org, Syria is not a signatory of either the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), - an international agreement banning the production, stockpiling or use of chemical weapons, or the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

Syria began developing chemical weapons in 1973, just before the Yom Kipper War. Global Security.org cites the country as having one of the most advanced chemical weapons programs in the Middle East.

Or maybe it could've -- say, when these two charmers were on a site inspection....

What the Bush Administration has accomplished in the Arab world

Those who yearn for the days of "American engagement" in the Middle East during the Clinton Administration, those who deride President's Bush's vision of a new Middle East, should consider the actual, observable behavior of Arab nations today. Syria claims that Israel mounted an aerial assault deep in its territory, but more disturbing to the Syrians than the Israelis' ability to penetrate its air defenses is the total lack of support, or even interest, from other Arab nations, as described in this Jerusalem Post report:

Issam Dari, the editor-in-chief of the Tishrin daily, one of the Syrian government's mouthpieces in Damascus, said he was more worried by the Arab reactions than the Israeli "aggression."

The Arabs remained silent in the face of the Israeli piracy, he said, adding, "They are pretending as if this happened on Mars or Jupiter."

A Jordanian academic in Amman said many Arab governments were unhappy with Syria's role in Lebanon and Iraq, as well as its close ties with Iran.

"The Syrians are still meddling in the internal affairs of Lebanon by killing anti-Syrian figures," he told The Jerusalem Post. "They are also seen as supporting al-Qaida-affiliated terrorists in Iraq."

The academic said the Syrians should be the last ones to expect the backing of the Gulf countries.

"Syria is a close ally of Iran, which is still regarded as a major threat to stability in the Gulf," he said. "[Syrian President] Bashar Assad has placed himself on the wrong side by forging an alliance with Iran, Hamas and Hizbullah."

An Arab diplomat in Cairo said the failure of the Arab world to voice strong support for Syria "should be seen as a message to the rulers in Damascus that they must revise their policies." He said Assad "needs to realize that the Arab world has changed and become less tolerant toward dictatorships. Many Arab governments are angry with Syria because of its support for Hamas and Hizbullah."

Even Arab autocrats understand that their people seek greater political rights. They see Syria not as a champion of the old Arab order, but as an impediment to the new era of Arab reform. As with Soviet perestroika, the opening of cracks in Arab autocracies' political systems will lead to an accelerating process of change: chalk this up along with the North Korean nuclear retreat as major foreign policy victories for George W. Bush.

Sadly, this probably gets him a lot of Democrat votes

Dennis Kucinich is in the category of "useful idiot" for the enemies of America -- it might be worse than that, actually, in that he may really favor the defeat of America by its enemies as a necessary purgative of reactionary ideas like capitalism, private property, patriotism, religious belief... but in any event, he's willing to use his political capital to whitewash some of the most evil dictators and terror supporters in the world. The latest is Bashar al-Assad of Syria.

Kucinich's own campaign trumpets his visit to Syria with fulsome praise for the boy dictator as a visionary man of peace:

DAMASCUS, Syria, Sept. 2 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- In a meeting today with Dennis Kucinich, US Democratic Presidential candidate, Syrian President Bashar Assad said that Syria would be willing to participate in a multinational conference and peacekeeping force to help Iraq to manage its transition from occupied country to sovereign nation.

Assad made these assurances and other observations in a two-hour meeting with Kucinich, who traveled to Syria to discuss a peace initiative which has arisen out of his anti-war work in the House of Representatives. President Assad agreed with Kucinich that various US demands for the privatization of Iraq's oil and partition of Iraq would mean a continuation of war.

"We must stand for strength through peace, for a sovereign and unified Iraq. President Assad is willing for Syria to play a significant role in assisting in the stabilization of Iraq," said Kucinich. "President Assad knows that an international peace keeping and security force must be organized and ready to deploy in order to facilitate the end of the occupation. He understands that the US cannot leave a vacuum in Iraq, but that at the present time the US occupation is fueling the insurgency. He is recommending a parallel political process involving an Iraqi national conference, the disarming of militias, and the building up of an Iraqi army which would eventually takeover from international peace keepers."

Kucinich said the fact that Syria, a nation of just 20 million people, has both welcomed and is providing free health care and education to the million and a half Iraqi refugees is evidence of Syria's vital role in the region. "The international community must recognize and appreciate that Syria has at its own great cost provided a lifeboat to millions who suffer from the humanitarian crisis which the war in Iraq has created."

Late last night Kucinich and his wife Elizabeth visited a neighborhood of Damascus which was teeming with Iraqi refugees. "People are desperate. They have lost loved ones in the war. They have nothing but the clothes on their back, but they have their lives, thanks to President Assad's willingness to open Syria to the Iraqi refugees. This is a profound humanitarian gesture, since it has significantly increased the population of Syria. Now we must help Syria provide for these refugees," Kucinich said.

Kucinich told President Assad that he will take up the refugee matter with the UN Secretary General and the US Congress.

Kucinich and Assad discussed a wide range of other matters including building relations between Syria and the United States, the role of the European community in negotiations between Syria and Israel, hopes for a national unity government in Lebanon, conditions affecting Pakistan and Assad's desire for a peace agreement with Israel hinging on resolution of matters relating to Golan.

After the meeting Mrs. Kucinich met with British born Mrs. Assad to discuss their mutual interests and work in community economic development, education and the welfare of refugees.

Kucinich and his wife Elizabeth visited the ancient holy site of Notre Dame de Saydanaya, where today fully veiled Muslim women worship together with Christians. "This is the one of the few places in the world that I have witnessed such profound coexistence, and harmony," Mrs. Kucinich said. "In this time of religious strife it is important to bear witness to places which show the way of peace."

This evening Kucinich spoke to over 150 academicians, journalists and politicians in Damascus where he presented his new security doctrine. "Strength through Peace turns the neoconservative doctrine of Peace through Strength on its head. The neo-cons' Peace through Strength, has led to unilateralism, military build up and illegal war." Kucinich told the packed audience, "Strength through Peace favors the upholding of international law, treaties and direct engagement, which is why I am here" Kucinich added.

"I believe that through direct communication there is new hope for peace," he said. "The world is ready to fall in love with America again. It is important that America reaches out to show our true values, our compassion and our willingness to work for peace."

The trip is continuing with a visit to Lebanon.

SOURCE Kucinich for President 2008

Kucinich politely doesn't mention that the reason Assad was able to open his country to so many Iraqi refugees is because he's opened his country to terrorists who infiltrated into Iraq and committed horrific acts that created the refugee crisis.

Kucinich is continuing his trip into Lebanon. One wonders what his Lebanese hosts will say to him about Syria's helpfulness in their country. If Kucinich talks to the Lebanese president, he'll get the pure pro-Syrian, pro-Hezbollah line; if he bothers to speak with the Lebansese prime minister, he may get an earful about the real intentions and actions of Syria.

Amazingly, even the People's Daily of Communist China has a more balanced report of the Syrian-Lebanese situation than Kucinich's press release:

Visiting U.S. Democratic congressman Dennis Kucinich on Sunday underlined the important role of Syria in boosting security and stability in the region, the official SANA news agency said.

"My visit to Syria comes from my conviction that it plays an important and constructive role in the region," Kucinich was quoted as saying in a lecture at the al-Assad library in the Syrian capital.

"I believe in the necessity of holding direct contacts with Syria in order to realize peace," he added.

Kucinich, a U.S. presidential candidate, praised Syria's role to host more than 1.5 million Iraqi refugees, calling upon the UN to help it in bearing part of the burdens resulted from such a situation.

Kucinich, currently on a fact-finding tour in the region, held talks earlier in the day with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, said SANA.

U.S.-Syrian relations, strained since 2003 as the Arab country strongly opposed the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, witnessed a remarkable tension after the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri in Feb. 2005.

Washington has been accusing Damascus of doing little to stop alleged anti-U.S. militants and weapons from crossing into Iraq and of being involved in Hariri's killing, both of which are denied by Syria.

The United States, unilaterally imposing economic sanctions against Syria in 2004, withdrew its ambassador to Syria right after Hariri was killed, but still maintains a lower-level diplomatic mission in the Syrian capital.

The People's Daily story is confirmation that Kucinich believes that assassinations play an important and constructive role in the Middle East.

Call Nancy Pelosi - her buddy Bashar needs a good talking-to

So Bashar al-Assad, president of Syria, has this brother-in-law, and he's in charge of Syria's intelligence services, right? And it turns out, according to a Lebanese guy arrested in Beirut, this brother-in-law has been using a terrorist organization to destabilize Lebanon -- you know, asssassinate a few politicians, start a battle in a refugee camp that leads to the deaths of more than 100 Lebanese soldiers, that kind of thing.

Beirut - An alleged leader of the Fatah al-Islam terrorist network has testified to interrogators that the group is linked to the head of Syria's intelligence apparatus Maj. Gen. Assef Shawkat, the brother-in-law of President Bashar Assad.

Ahmed Merie, a Lebanese citizen arrested late in May at a Beirut hotel, also testified to military examining magistrate Rashid Mezher that four members of Fatah al-Islam gunned down legislator Pierre Gemayel on Nov. 21 in east Beirut's suburb of Jdaideh, according to the daily al-Moustaqbal.

Another pan Arab daily, al-Sharq al-Awsat, published a similar report.

The report said Merie testified to Mezher during interrogation that he was the "liaison officer" between Fatah al-Islam's leader Shaker Abssi and Shawkat.

Can't Nancy Pelosi call her good friend Bashar al-Assad and straighten this out? I'm sure his brother-in-law didn't KNOW it was evil and a violation of international law to set up a terrorist organization in a neighboring country and help it assassinate that country's lawmakers and destabilize its government.

UN, meet the UN

Gen. Graziano, commander of UNIFIL forces in Southern Lebanon, gave the Jerusalem Post a robust assessment of security in his sphere of operations -- just a few days before six of his troops were blown to smithereens by a roadside bomb.

'In my area of operations there is no open hostile activity, and we also do not see a rearmament happening,' he said. 'We are physically patrolling every corner of southern Lebanon, and if there were a bunker [system], we would have found it.'

Someone at the UN should talk to someone at the UN:

Security along the Lebanon-Syria border is insufficient to prevent arms smuggling and Lebanon should quickly establish a mobile force to intercept any flow of weapons, a UN-appointed team said in a report obtained Tuesday by The Associated Press.

The 46-page "Report of the Lebanon Independent Border Assessment Team" said management of the border is currently shared by four different Lebanese security agencies that do not coordinate operations or planning, and do not share intelligence.

In addition, it said, most of Lebanon's border posts are far from the border, are not fenced or secured by gates, and operate with no obvious procedures to determine which goods to inspect - and which people to question.

"Therefore, the ingenious smuggler may find it quite easy to conceal not only explosives, light weapons and ammunition, but also assembled and unassembled heavy weaponry, such as missiles and rockets into the country concealed in compartments and panels of cargo trucks and passenger vehicles," the team said.

Unless and until Gen. Graziano fulfills his mandate to stop weapons from flowing into Southern Lebanon, he's going to preside over quite a few more funeral ceremonies for his men.

Sort of like if Katie Couric called for killing John Boehner

MSNBC recently did a story on the political contributions of journalists. Makes this story out of Lebanon seem pretty timely:

During the live coverage of Walid Eido's assassination, Nabih Berri's news channel anchors accidentally slipped on the air, as they proceeded to laugh at the murder of Eido, and imply there was more coming.

NBN's technical director forgot to kill the anchorwoman's microphone, allowing viewers to hear her say "it took them long enough", in reference to Eido's murder. In between rounds of laughing and gloating with her colleagues, they speculated that March 14 minister Ahmad Fatafat could be next, and tried to determine how many more March 14 members need to die to get rid of the parliament's majority.


Beyond the divisive and damaging insults being cast in the aftermath of one of the most violent and tragic political assassinations in Lebanon's history which claimed the lives of 10 citizens, the sick comments open a can of worms for Lebanon's delinquent speaker of the parliament, Nabih Berri and his closest ally, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.

The NBN employees imply that there is in fact a plan to eliminate the anti-Syrian majority by killing off their members of parliament.

We expect to see gleeful gloating about the deaths of political opponents on looney-left blogs like DailyKos and the Huffington Post. In a country threatening to slide back into civil war, hearing those comments from a news anchor is more than disgusting, it's deadly.